WTIO31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 20.0N 71.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 71.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 21.6N 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 23.4N 71.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 25.2N 73.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 71.2E.
17MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 113
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) ALONG WITH THE ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE CONTINUAL LAND INTERACTION ALONG THE INDIAN
COAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE 10-NM RAGGED EYE AND A TIMELY 171130Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DEMS
T5.0/90KTS, SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE PGTW
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.5/102KTS, THE SATELLITE CONSENSUS (SATCON)
ESTIMATE OF 117KTS, AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) OF
T6.0/115KTS. ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). TC 01A
WILL BEGIN TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT
TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR
JAFARABAD, INDIA THROUGH TAU 12. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
IN INTENSITY AS IT ENTERS AN AREA OF GREATER VWS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
TERRAIN INTERACTION AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS NEARSHORE AS IT TRACKS
NORTH. AFTER LANDFALL, THE CYCLONE WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN AND THE HIGHER VWS, LEADING TO THE OVERALL DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH AN EVEN AND GRADUAL SPREAD TO A MAXIMUM OF 65NM BY
TAU 36, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z, AND 181500Z.//
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