More evidence of causal link between air pollution and early death


Date:
June 26, 2020
Source:
Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
Summary:
Strengthening U.S. air quality standards for fine particulate
pollution to be in compliance with current World Health Association
(WHO) guidelines could save more than 140,000 lives over the course
of a decade, according to a new study.



FULL STORY ========================================================================== Strengthening U.S. air quality standards for fine particulate pollution
to be in compliance with current World Health Association (WHO) guidelines could save more than 140,000 lives over the course of a decade, according
to a new study from Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.


==========================================================================
The study, published June 26, 2020 in Sciences Advances, provides the
most comprehensive evidence to date of the causal link between long-term exposure to fine particulate (PM2.5) air pollution and premature death, according to the authors.

"Our new study included the largest-ever dataset of older Americans and
used multiple analytical methods, including statistical methods for causal inference, to show that current U.S. standards for PM2.5 concentrations
are not protective enough and should be lowered to ensure that vulnerable populations, such as the elderly, are safe," said doctoral student Xiao
Wu, a co-author of the study.

The new research builds on a 2017 study that showed that long-term
exposure to PM2.5 pollution and ozone, even at levels below current
U.S. air quality standards, increases the risk of premature death among
the elderly in the U.S.

For the new study, researchers looked at 16 years' worth of data from
68.5 million Medicare enrollees -- 97% of Americans over the age of 65
-- adjusting for factors such as body mass index, smoking, ethnicity,
income, and education.

They matched participants' zip codes with air pollution data gathered
from locations across the U.S. In estimating daily levels of PM2.5 air pollution for each zip code, the researchers also took into account
satellite data, land-use information, weather variables, and other
factors. They used two traditional statistical approaches as well as
three state-of-the-art approaches aimed at teasing out cause and effect.

Results were consistent across all five different types of analyses,
offering what authors called "the most robust and reproducible evidence
to date" on the causal link between exposure to PM2.5 and mortality
among Medicare enrollees - - even at levels below the current U.S. air
quality standard of 12 ?g/m3 (12 micrograms per cubic meter) per year.

The authors found that an annual decrease of 10 ?g/m3 in PM2.5 pollution
would lead to a 6%-7% decrease in mortality risk. Based on that finding,
they estimated that if the U.S. lowered its annual PM2.5 standard to
10 ?g/m3 -- the WHO annual guideline -- 143,257 lives would be saved in
one decade.

The authors included additional analyses focused on causation,
which address criticisms that traditional analytical methods are not
sufficient to inform revisions of national air quality standards. The
new analyses enabled the researchers, in effect, to mimic a randomized
study -- considered the gold standard in assessing causality -- thereby strengthening the finding of a link between air pollution and early death.

"The Environmental Protection Agency has proposed retaining current
national air quality standards. But, as our new analysis shows, the
current standards aren't protective enough, and strengthening them could
save thousands of lives.

With the public comment period for the EPA proposal ending on June 29,
we hope our results can inform policymakers' decisions about potentially updating the standards," said co-author Francesca Dominici, Clarence
James Gamble Professor of Biostatistics, Population, and Data Science.


========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by
Harvard_T.H._Chan_School_of_Public_Health. Note: Content may be edited
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========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Xiao Wu, Danielle Braun, Marianthi-Anna Kioumourtzoglou, Francesca
Dominici. Evaluating the Impact of Long-term Exposure to Fine
Particulate Matter on Mortality Among the Elderly. Science Advances,
2020 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aba5692 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200626141413.htm

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