WTPQ30 RJTD 211200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.35 FOR TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SURIGAE IS LOCATED AT 18.7N, 124.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE 90KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1337:3/103)