WTXS21 PGTW 200830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
105NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.9S 52.8E TO 9.6S 47.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 200600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.8S 52.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.1S 53.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 52.4E, APPROXIMATELY 634
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 200256Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL FORMATIVE
BANDING WITH CYCLING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 200623Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE PASS
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LLCC AND AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD, WITH 25-30KT
WINDS AND A RELATIVELY SMALLER AREA OF 30-35KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE AFOREMENTIONED DATA LEND HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
ANALYSIS POSITION. INVEST 95S IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION, WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95S WILL TRACK WESTWARD AS IT INTENSIFIES AND
PASSES NORTH OF MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
210830Z.//
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