AXAU01 APRF 101330
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1330 UTC 10/04/2021

Name: Tropical Cyclone Seroja
Identifier: 22U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 21.4S
Longitude: 108.7E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [141 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 976 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 10/1800: 22.3S 109.5E: 040 [080]: 060 [110]: 974
+12: 11/0000: 23.7S 110.4E: 050 [095]: 065 [120]: 970
+18: 11/0600: 25.3S 111.7E: 060 [105]: 065 [120]: 970
+24: 11/1200: 27.1S 113.5E: 065 [120]: 060 [110]: 974
+36: 12/0000: 31.6S 119.4E: 090 [165]: 035 [065]: 992
+48: 12/1200: 35.9S 126.6E: 125 [235]: 030 [055]: 993
+60: 13/0000: 40.3S 133.5E: 225 [415]: 030 [055]: 991
+72: 13/1200: : : :
+96: 14/1200: : : :
+120: 15/1200: : : :

REMARKS:
Seroja has turned and is now moving towards the southeast. Position based on multiple recent microwave passes, giving good confidence in current location and motion.

Dvorak analysis has been difficult, with cloud features becoming less defined. Embedded centre pattern yields a time average DT of 4.0. Recent images have a curved band of about 0.8, yielding DT of 3.5. MET is 3.5 based on no weakening over the past 24 hours, and PAT is set at 3.5. FT and CI remain at 4.0. ADT estimates are between 30 and 3.5. SATCON at 0624 UTC was 58 knots [one minute mean]. Final intensity estimate is maintained at 55 knots.

Shear is analysed at approximately 20 knots from the east southeast based on CIMSS analysis, with lower shear over the southern portion of the system. Although the cloud signature of this system has not been great over the past 12 or so hours, recently it has shown some signs of improvement, with deeper convection and some curvature developing. The low level circulation has remained
symmetrical and well formed on recent microwave passes, so Seroja is forecast to
intensify a little in response to improving conditions in the next 12 hours. It is forecast to reach Category 3 intensity for a period on Sunday, in particular due to the enhanced wind field expected to develop in the northeast quadrant as it accelerates towards the southeast.

Seroja is forecast to weaken into a Category 2 system before crossing the coast,
however a Category 3 impact cannot be ruled out, particularly if it follows a crosses in the Shark Bay area.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 10/1930 UTC.
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