WTIO30 FMEE 081901
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/13/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/08 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 80.5 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/09 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2021/03/09 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2021/03/10 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2021/03/10 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

60H: 2021/03/11 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2021/03/11 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/12 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2021/03/13 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 315 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=4.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, HABANA'S PATTERN HAD A MIXED EVOLUTION. AFTER
GETTING WARMER TOPS AND LOOSING ITS SMALL EYE, DEEP CONVECTION BURSTS
AGAIN NEAR THE CENTER. 1318Z SSMIS MICROWAVE DATA STILL SHOW THE
EFFECT OF THE NORTH-EASTERLY SHEAR ON THE INNER CORE. HOWEVER ITS
RESOLUTION MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO DISTINGUISH THE SMALL EYE.
FINALLY SMAP AND SMOS AFTERNOON SWATHS SHOW RESPECTIVELY 64 AND 59KT.
THIS SUGGEST THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL PRESENT IN HABANA CIRCULATION.

HABANA IS STARTING TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD, UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST. TOMORROW, A NEW
RIDGE SETTLING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD INFLECT THE
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS, THE
LAST AVAILABLE GUIDANCES REINFORCED AGAIN THE NORTHWARD SHIFT WHICH
HAS BEEN TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT. FROM THURSDAY, MOST MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTHWESTWARD, THEN SOUTHWARD OR EVEN SOUTHEASTWARD DIVE FROM
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A STRONG SPREAD AMONG THE
GUIDANCE ON THIS NEW TURN. THE RSMC'S FORECAST IS BASED ON A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, AFTER THE WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED THIS
MONDAY, THE WESTWARD ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE DIRECTION OF
THE WIND SHEAR (WHICH REMAINS WEAK) SHOULD FREE IT FROM OTHER DRY AIR INTRUSIONS. IT WILL THEN BENEFIT FROM GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
FAVORABLE OCEANIC POTENTIAL. INTENSIFICATION SHOULD THUS RESUME AS
FROM TUESDAY AND UNTIL THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. AT THE VERY END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR
AHEAD OF A TROUGH COULD WEAKEN HABANA.

OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, HABANA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED
LANDS.
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