WTXS32 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 19.7S 79.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 79.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 19.6S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.3S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 18.9S 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.5S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 78.8E.
13FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1241 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 131638Z
MHS 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED BUT DEFINED LLCC WITH ISOLATED, DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
UPPER-LOW TO THE WEST, OFFSET BY MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS), A 131800Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 2.2 (32
KNOTS) AND RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY SHOWING 30-35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. TC 19S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 75NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
GALE-FORCE GRADIENT WINDS PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE MID-LEVELS AND PERSISTENT
MODERATE TO HIGH VWS (20-25 KNOTS) ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WELL AS WEAK INFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. CONSEQUENTLY, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 48, OR
PERHAPS SOONER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 19
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z.//
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