School closures may not reduce coronavirus deaths as much as expected
Extensive simulations seek the ideal distancing scenario to reduce severe coronavirus cases with minimal social disruption

Date:
February 9, 2021
Source:
American Institute of Physics
Summary:
School closures, the loss of public spaces, and having to work
remotely due to the coronavirus pandemic have caused major
disruptions in people's lives all over the world. After running
thousands of simulations of the pandemic response in New York
City with variations in social distancing behavior, researchers
suggest a reduction in fatal coronavirus cases can be achieved
without the need for so much social disruption.



FULL STORY ========================================================================== School closures, the loss of public spaces, and having to work remotely
due to the coronavirus pandemic have caused major disruptions in people's social lives all over the world.


========================================================================== Researchers from City University of Hong Kong, the Chinese Academy of
Sciences, and Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute suggest a reduction in
fatal coronavirus cases can be achieved without the need for so much
social disruption. They discuss the impacts of the closures of various
types of facilities in the journal Chaos, from AIP Publishing.

After running thousands of simulations of the pandemic response in
New York City with variations in social distancing behavior at home,
in schools, at public facilities, and in the workplace while considering differences in interactions between different age groups, the results were stunning. The researchers found school closures are not largely beneficial
in preventing serious cases of COVID-19. Less surprisingly, social
distancing in public places, particularly among elderly populations,
is the most important.

"School only represents a small proportion of social contact. ... It is
more likely that people get exposure to viruses in public facilities, like restaurants and shopping malls," said Qingpeng Zhang, one of the authors.

"Since we focus here on the severe infections and deceased cases, closing schools contributes little if the elderly citizens are not protected
in public facilities and other places." Because New York City is so
densely populated, the effects of schools are significantly smaller
than general day-to-day interactions in public, because students are
generally the least vulnerable to severe infections. But keeping public
spaces open allows for spread to occur from less-vulnerable young people
to the more-vulnerable older population.

"Students may bridge the connection between vulnerable people, but
these people are already highly exposed in public facilities," Zhang
said. "In other cities where people are much more distanced, the results
may change." Though the present findings are specific to New York,
replacing the age and location parameters in the model can extend its
results to any city. This will help determine the ideal local control
measures to contain the pandemic with minimal social disruptions.

"These patterns are unique for different cities, and good practice in
one city may not translate to another city," said Zhang.

The authors emphasized that while these findings have promising
implications, the model is still just a model, and it cannot capture the intricacies and subtle details of real-life interactions to a perfect
extent. The inclusion of mobile phone, census, transportation, or other
big data in the future can help inform a more realistic decision.

"Given the age and location mixing patterns, there are so many variables
to be considered, so the optimization is challenging," said Zhang. "Our
model is an attempt."

========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by American_Institute_of_Physics. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Jiannan Yang, Qingpeng Zhang, Zhidong Cao, Jianxi Gao, Dirk
Pfeiffer, Lu
Zhong, Daniel Dajun Zeng. The impact of non-pharmaceutical
interventions on the prevention and control of COVID-19 in New York
City. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science,
2021; 31 (2): 021101 DOI: 10.1063/5.0040560 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/02/210209113905.htm

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