WTPS13 NFFN 021200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER C4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 021324 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE LUCAS CENTRE 980HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8S 167.1E AT
021200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
18 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 190 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION SLIGHTLY INPROVED IN THE LAST 3 HOURS. LLCC EMBEDDED
UNDER DEEP CONVECTION WITH CYCLONE MOVING INTO AREA OF HIGH SHEAR. TC
LUCAS STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE FAR EAST OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.85 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=3.5, MET AND
PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS DVORAK T3.5/3.5/W0.5/24HRS

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 030000 UTC 21.4S 167.2E MOV S AT 8 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 031200 UTC 22.5S 166.9E MOV S AT 7 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 040000 UTC 23.1S 166.6E MOV S AT 5 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 041200 UTC 23.9S 165.7E MOV SSW AT 5 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC LUCAS WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 022000 UTC.
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