WTPS32 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301651JAN2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301951JAN2021//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. REF B IS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 11.9S 171.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 171.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 12.4S 174.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 14.3S 177.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.9S 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 19.8S 178.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 25.5S 175.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 172.2E.
30JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
392 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED
EASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TWO AREAS OF COMPACT DEEP
CONVECTION, ONE NEAR THE ASSESSED CENTER AND THE OTHER DISPLACED TO
THE NORTH, WITH LOW-LEVEL BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN
CONVECTIVE AREA. A FORTUITOUS 301406Z AMSR2 COLOR ENHANCED 36GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATED A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH A CYAN RING AND STRONG CONVECTION BANDS TO THE SOUTH AND
NORTH. HOWEVER DUE TO THE EXTENDED TIME SINCE THE AMSR2 PASS AND THE
LACK OF A CLEAR CENTER IN THE EIR, THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED
WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS,
HIGHER THAN THE PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KTS) AND
IN AGREEMENT WITH A KNES ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS) AND THE OVERALL
STRUCTURE OF THE COMPACT SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT
THE SYSTEM LIES IN A MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE REGION CHARACTERIZED BY
WARM (30-31C) SSTS, LOW (5-10 KT) VWS AND ROBUST EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. TC 16P IS TRACKING QUICKLY TOWARDS THE EAST UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)
CENTERED TO THE NORTH. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE PRIMARY STEERING
MECHANISM SHIFTS TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE
EAST. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH AND
BECOME CAPTURED BY TC 15P SOUTH OF FIJI, ULTIMATELY BECOMING
ABSORBED BY TC 15P BY TAU 72. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SYSTEM
SHOULD REMAIN IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, ALLOWING FOR A
SHORT BURST OF INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 45 KTS BY TAU 24.
THEREAFTER THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VWS AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT EMANATING FROM THE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH TC 15P. AS THE SYSTEM CLOSES AND MERGES WITH TC 15P, THE
COMBINATION OF THE CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT, COOLER SSTS AND DISRUPTION
OF THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION AS A DISTINCT
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO AT LEAST THROUGH TAU 36 WITH
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH TC
15P. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE MULT-
MODEL CONSENSUS IN LIGHT OF RECENT MOTION THOUGH TAU 36, THEN VERY
NEAR THE CONSENSUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER
DUE TO THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN NATURE OF THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH
TC 15P, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
15P (ANA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS22 PGTW 301700).//
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