WTPS31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 15.4S 146.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 146.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 15.9S 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.4S 145.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 16.8S 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 17.1S 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 146.5E.
17JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (KIMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
99 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT, MIDGET TC WITH A 60-
65NM DIAMETER CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. A 170425Z GMI 89GHZ
COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED
RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE CAIRNS RADAR ALSO SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC
LOCATED JUST WEST OF BOUGAINVILLE REEF, WHICH IS REPORTING 25-30
KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS (10-MINUTE AVERAGE) WITH 30-35 KNOT GUSTS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON RECENT ASCAT
DATA, HOWEVER, DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND ABRF REMAIN
LOWER AT T2.5 (35 KNOTS) WHILE THE 170630Z ADT ESTIMATE IS HIGHER AT
3.0 (45 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST VALUES (29-30C). TC
11P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 12 WITHIN A
COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
TO THE SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT
WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AND TWO DISCRETE GROUPS OF
TRACKERS. UEMN, NVGM AND AEMN INDICATE A SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK THAT HOLDS THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WHILE AVNO, EEMN, ECMF AND AFUM
TRACK THE SYSTEM OVER LAND, SIMILAR TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK BASED ON
THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC MOTION
IN THE EARLY TAUS. TC 11P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 24 WITH RAPID WEAKENING OVER LAND AND
DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK
INTENSITY AS MIDGET CYCLONES CAN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY UNEXPECTEDLY.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//
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