AXAU01 APRF 141849
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1848 UTC 14/01/2021
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 14.3S
Longitude: 96.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [216 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1001 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 15/0000: 14.7S 95.7E: 045 [085]: 030 [055]: 1001
+12: 15/0600: 15.0S 95.3E: 060 [105]: 030 [055]: 1000
+18: 15/1200: 15.4S 94.9E: 065 [120]: 035 [065]: 999
+24: 15/1800: 15.7S 94.4E: 075 [135]: 035 [065]: 998
+36: 16/0600: 16.2S 93.2E: 085 [160]: 040 [075]: 996
+48: 16/1800: 16.7S 92.0E: 105 [195]: 045 [085]: 992
+60: 17/0600: 17.3S 90.8E: 120 [220]: 045 [085]: 993
+72: 17/1800: 17.9S 89.5E: 130 [245]: 045 [085]: 992
+96: 18/1800: 18.5S 87.3E: 165 [310]: 045 [085]: 992
+120: 19/1800: 18.9S 83.6E: 195 [355]: 045 [085]: 992
REMARKS:
An exposed LLCC during the day has slowly moved closer to deep convection by 1800UTC, but remains about 30nm to the northeast of the strong gradient. Dvorak based on shear pattern, yielding a DT of 3.0. MT and PT suggest a 2.5. FT based on PT and CI held at 2.5 also based on constraints with initial classification at 1700UTC 13 January. Intensity set at 30 knots as confirmed by an OSCAT pass at 1330UTC.

Tropical Low 07U has seen increased persistent deep convection during the overnight period [during the diurnally favourable time] to the southwest of an exposed LLCC. It currently lies in a moderate to high [20 to 30 knots CIMSS 12UTC] northeasterly sheared environment with warm SST. There is moderate upper divergence to the southwest and northwest.

The system will track steadily to the southwest over the coming days under the influence of a mid level ridge. It will slowly develop over the next 24 for 48 hours as the NE'ly shear eases, possibly reaching tropical cyclone strength during Saturday morning.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 15/0130 UTC.
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AXAU02 APRF 202131
IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 2131 UTC 20/01/2021
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 12.4S
Longitude: 98.1E
Location Accuracy: within 50 nm [95 km]
Movement Towards: west [281 deg]
Speed of Movement: 11 knots [20 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 21/0000: 12.4S 97.0E: 055 [105]: 035 [065]: 1002
+12: 21/0600: 12.6S 96.4E: 070 [125]: 035 [065]: 998
+18: 21/1200: 12.7S 96.0E: 075 [140]: 035 [065]: 1000
+24: 21/1800: 12.7S 95.8E: 085 [155]: 035 [065]: 994
+36: 22/0600: 13.1S 95.6E: 095 [180]: 045 [085]: 991
+48: 22/1800: 13.7S 96.0E: 115 [210]: 040 [075]: 995
+60: 23/0600: 14.4S 95.9E: 130 [235]: 040 [075]: 995
+72: 23/1800: 15.4S 95.8E: 140 [265]: 040 [075]: 995
+96: 24/1800: 17.3S 95.2E: 175 [330]: 040 [075]: 995
+120: 25/1800: 18.6S 94.8E: 205 [375]: 040 [075]: 994
REMARKS:
Position accuracy was poor due to a lack of structure. A microwave image at
755
UTC revealed a low level centre slightly north of the previous fixes, however it is quite broad.

Tropical low 10U has steadily developed over the past 24 hours with persistent deep convection west of the centre over the last 6 hours. Dvorak assessment is difficult to determine a DT due to flaring convection with little structure. Standard development gives MET=2.0, PAT-2.0. FT based on MET=2.0.

10U is in an area of moderate vertical wind shear [easterly 20-25kt] on the northern side of the upper ridge. ASCAT winds at 0109 UTC and 0317 UTC show an area of 25kt winds on the southern side, reaching up to 30kt in the southwest.

Model guidance indicates a slight decrease in the upper winds, therefore slow to
standard development is expected over the next 24 hours. An ASCAT pass at 1342 UTC showed a small area of gales in the southwest quadrant. 10U is expected to reach Tropical cyclone intensity as gales extend to the northwest and northeast quadrants early on Friday. The system should then slow and commence a southward turn, moving away from the Cocos [Keeling] Islands as an upper trough approaches to the south


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/0130 UTC.

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